Kitne Votes The? How Close Were Exit Polls in Gujarat & Himachal?

Political prediction is a tricky thing. Here’s a look at what exit polls said ahead of Gujarat & Himachal elections.

A look at how accurate the exit polls were for the 2017 Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections.

(Photo: The Quint)

Political prediction is a tricky thing.

With every election, exit polls flood TV channels, newspapers and media websites, but it is only after the results come in that their accuracy can be judged. As the counting for Gujarat & Himachal Pradesh assembly elections enters its last stage, it is time to assess which exit polls predicted BJP's twin wins.

In Gujarat: A Close Contest, Well Foretold

Here’s a snapshot of what the exit polls predicted in the run-up to result day in Gujarat. Almost all polls predicted a win for the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state, but the margins for the victory differed. The exit polls gave BJP more than 100 seats, however latest figures by the Election Commission indicate that BJP will be limited to 99 seats.

Here’s a snapshot of the latest results, as quoted by Election Commission, subject to change as the numbers come in.

In Himachal: A BJP Win, Everywhere

In Himachal Pradesh, the exit polls and the results are all painted saffron. Just like Gujarat, there wasn’t a dissenting note among the exit polls forecasting a victory for BJP in Himachal Pradesh. Here’s a look at what the exit polls predicted.

The results for Himachal Pradesh, as quoted by Election Commission, currently show BJP winning 44 seats and Congress getting 21 seats. The prediction by pollsters is not too far off.

But despite winning in Himachal Pradesh, BJP’s chief ministerial candidate, Prem Kumar Dhumal, has lost in his constituency of Sujanpur. After all, the exit polls can only predict numbers.

Individual fates are still governed by the unpredictable ebb and flow of Indian politics.

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