Exit Polls Show Karnataka Deviated From Expected Voting Patterns
If exit polls are to be believed, many regions of Karnataka have voted against the expectations.
Rather than providing clarity, the exit polls that followed the Karnataka Assembly elections have instead created confusion about the possible outcomes of the polls.
Although the exit polls didn’t give a sense of who would win the elections, they made it clear that one of the two major parties – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the Congress – will emerge as the single largest party, with a clear lead helping them in government formation.
However, region-wise data of the exit polls shows that many regions of Karnataka, especially Old Mysuru and Hyderabad-Karnataka, have voted against the expectations. Taking the Axis-My India survey, which came closest to predicting the outcomes of the Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh elections, we look at how some regions in the state have gone against their usual voting patterns.
Lower Voter Turnout Helped Congress in Bengaluru?
The survey, which calculated the number for Bengaluru city and Bengaluru rural together, gave the Congress a lead with 15 seats, while the BJP was given only 10 seats.
Since the beginning of the election season, the assumption was that Bengaluru and Coastal Karnataka were going to be an easy win for the BJP, as it was thought that it was only in these two regions, the party was able to use anti-incumbency in its favour. While Coastal Karnataka remained true to that assumption, as per the exit poll, Bengaluru has voted in favour of the Congress.
The lower voter turnout in Bengaluru is one of the possible explanations to this changing trend. Voter turnout in Bengaluru urban was a mere 52 percent, even though the state saw record 72 percent voter turnout.
Even though the BJP claims to have a bigger cadre vote-share in the city, the urban poor remain the backbone of the Congress. And in case of a lower voter turnout, the assumption remains that those who came out to vote were from the urban poor community.
The Lingayat Anger Cost Congress Mumbai-Karnataka?
In Mumbai-Karnataka, the BJP is pitched to get at least 33 out of the 40 seats the region has to offer. The clean sweep predicted by the survey can be attributed to the failure of Siddaramaiah’s gamble with the new Lingayat religion.
Months ahead of the polls, the chief minister had recommended for separating Lingayats from the Hindu religion. He had expected that supporting the cause of a new religion would work in his favour, but the survey suggests his plans have failed in the region.
In the Mumbai-Karnataka region, the demand for a separate religion has been a top-down movement, where debate on whether a separate religion is needed or not, has been confined to the academicians, politicians and religious leaders.
While the common man was aware of the nuances of the new religion, several influential religious mutts went against the decision. If the survey has to be believed, the Lingayat anger cost the Congress Mumbai-Karnataka.
JD(S) No Longer Holds the Mysuru Region?
Months ahead of the elections, the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) announced they would sweep the Old Mysuru region, a stronghold of the Vokkaliga community, that supported the party. But according to the exit poll, the Congress will lead in the region with 33 seats and the JD(S) would get only 20 seats.
Siddaramaiah’s increasing popularity in the region, clubbed with his AHINDA strategy, was the trump card for the Congress in the region. While the Dalit and backward classes remained loyal to the Congress, according to ground reports, the JD(S)’s attempt to appeal to the Muslim community, have not succeeded. Also, in the Vokkaliga villages The Quint visited, the message was clear: We won’t vote en bloc for the JD(S), but vote for those who can get our work done.
Reddy Brothers Not Stars Anymore?
A Congress victory in Hyderabad-Karnataka region was expected. In this Congress strong hold, leaders like Mallikarjun Kharge remain popular among the SC/ST community, which populates the region.
But the prediction of 33 seats for the Congress in the region does come as a surprise. The BJP remains confident of winning more seats in the region because of the influence of Reddy brothers and B Sriramalu.
If the prediction remains true, it suggests that the people’s desire for the development of the region has given the Congress another chance in Hyderabad-Karnataka. While the BJP lacked a clear campaign promise for the region, the Congress pinned its hopes on Article 371(J) of the Constitution, which provides a special status to the region, and for which the Congress claims full responsibility.
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