BJP’s ‘Virat’ Winning Streak May Face Roadblocks in 2018 & Beyond
The BJP and its allies won 189 of the 201 seats in nine states alone, with a staggering strike rate of 94 percent!
To say that Virat Kohli has been enjoying a dream run is an understatement. His total domination on the field as a captain and as a devastating batsman in all formats – Tests, ODIs and T20 – seems amazing. To top it all, his fairy tale wedding with Anushka Sharma recently caught the nation’s attention.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has had a similar run in the last 42 months. Other than securing an absolute majority on its own in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and its allies are now in power in as many as 19 states!
Aside from occasional hiccups, the BJP has surprised all pundits by improving on its performance in almost all elections since May 2014. We haven’t seen this kind of domination of a single party in three decades. Now that the BJP-led NDA government has entered the slog overs, let us examine some of the statistical walls it will have to climb to continue to churn out amazing electoral results.
1. What If BJP’s Success Rate Against Congress in Lok Sabha Polls Drops to a Normal Level?
In a column in 2015, Milan Vaishnav, a fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote: “In the 189 constituencies in which the two parties were the top two vote-getters, the BJP won 166 (or 88 percent) of races, as opposed to its 49 percent success rate in constituencies where its primary opponents were regional parties.” By the two parties, he meant the BJP and the Congress.
Contrast that to the more modest (despite Jo Jeeta Wahi Sikandar bravado) success rate of 54 percent witnessed in the recently concluded Gujarat Assembly elections. Of all places, Gujarat, with the same two parties in the reckoning, has shown that climbing the stiff statistical wall need some effort.
There is no denying that drawing big conclusions based on one set of elections is a risky business. That too, when we are comparing Lok Sabha to Assembly elections. What Gujarat, however, has shown is that winning all seats all the time is a tough ask. That the law of averages can catch up with even the seemingly invincible BJP.
If that happens, it will mean a loss of 53 Lok Sabha seats for the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. What it indicates is that slight improvement in the fortunes of the Congress may give sleepless nights to the ruling party.
2. What If 100 or near 100 Percent Performance Does Not Get Repeated?
The BJP won all Lok Sabha seats in five states – Gujarat, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Delhi. In other words, the BJP won all of the 67 seats in these states. In another four states – Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh – the saffron party and its allies won 122 of the 134 seats on offer.
What if there is a marginal slip? Will the BJP make up for the possible shortfall from Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar and Tamil Nadu, other big states with substantial number of Lok Sabha seats?
But with a score of 31 out of 40 in Bihar and 41 out of 48 in Maharashtra (in both the states with allies), is there enough headroom available for the BJP in these two states? And significant improvement seems unlikely, at least at this stage, in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.
3. What Impact Will Alienating Influential Castes and Communities Have on the Outcome?
The BJP got nearly 17 crore votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, which was a record jump of nearly 10 crore votes over the 2009 elections. The Congress, on the other hand, saw a dip of 1.2 crore votes in the same period. The grand old party could secure only 10.7 crore votes in 2014. What this data, however, shows is that the Congress can reclaim some of its lost ground even with a marginal improvement in its fortunes.
The BJP, on the other hand, has an uphill task at hand to retain its votes, given the alienation of the some of the politically influential groups like Muslims, Marathas and a section of Jats (in Haryana) and Yadavs (in Bihar).
Surveys have indicated that a sizeable section of Marathas, Jats and Yadavs had voted for the BJP in 2014. What if the enthusiasm wanes this time?
How will the BJP make up for the shortfall? By securing votes of farmers who are reeling under acute rural distress? Or the youth who seem to be getting disillusioned with fewer job opportunities coming their way?
The BJP showed us in 2014 that spectacular results are possible. BJP supporters therefore would make us believe that miracles can be repeated. However, the Opposition can take solace from the fact that history rarely gets repeated.
(Breathe In, Breathe Out: Are you finding it tough to breathe polluted air? Join hands with FIT to find #PollutionKaSolution. Send in your suggestions to fit@thequint.com or WhatsApp @ +919999008335)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)