JD Vance in India: Behind the ‘Personal Visit’ Lies High-Stakes Trade Diplomacy

JD Vance’s trip, though nominally personal, reveals the high-stakes dance India must now navigate.

JD Vance’s visit comes as New Delhi rushes to avoid steep US tariffs and strike an early trade deal to boost ties with the Trump administration.

(Photo: X/@narendramodi)

India and the US are inching closer to a bilateral trade deal, both sides confirmed, after a high-level meeting in New Delhi between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US Vice-President JD Vance on Monday, 21 April. The meeting, part of Vance’s four-day visit, also covered defence, technology, and energy cooperation.

In a statement, the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said the two leaders “welcomed the significant progress in the negotiations for a mutually beneficial India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement.” Modi and Vance also reviewed developments in areas such as energy, defence, and strategic technologies, and appreciated the ongoing efforts to deepen cooperation across these sectors.

While both New Delhi and Washington have emphasised the personal nature of Vance’s visit, sources speaking to The Quint said it is imperative to understand the broader strategic context driving this “rare vice-presidential visit”.

India has found itself on uncertain ground with Donald Trump back in office as the US President continues to both praise Modi’s leadership and shoot arrows at the Indian government for high tariffs that make it tough for US companies to enter the market.

When previously asked about outcomes of Vance’s visit, Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that New Delhi is expecting it to be “very positive” and “further boost” ties. 

Vance’s trip, though nominally personal, reveals the high-stakes dance India must now navigate—balancing strategic hedging between Washington and Beijing, managing tariff threats, and leveraging geopolitical capital in an increasingly transactional world order.

"You can never predict what will come out of the talks... you never know whether they will be receptive or dismissive of issues concerning both countries. It’s their modus operandi."

An Indian diplomat who was part of the Indian delegation meeting Vance

‘The Defence Envelope’

First, defence. 

“They pushed the defence envelope—it’s a staple element of any high-level visit from the US, to twist our arm to buy more,” the official added. 

Previously, Trump and Modi had announced plans to ink a 10-year framework for defence partnership this year. 

US-origin defence has seldom found its way into Indian inventory, including the C‑130J Super Hercules, AH‑64E Apaches, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, howitzers, and the MQ‑9 Bs predator drones.

“You can expect a framework agreement for Delhi to co-produce and procure Javelin anti-tank guided missiles, Stryker infantry combat vehicles, and a few aircraft for the Indian Coast Guard. We already have an agreement on the terms of sale," the official said.

The official added that the establishment of a logistics support agreement—facilitating further mutual access to each other's naval bases for refuelling and maintenance—is also on the cards.

The visit also aligns with the ongoing efforts under the India-US defence Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X)—a strategic alliance launched in June 2023 to enhance technology and defence industry collaboration by aiming to bolster defence innovation and co-development initiatives. 

Moreover, Vance’s visit to India also lays the ground for Trump’s visit to the country later this year for the upcoming QUAD leaders’ summit.

‘Modi-Vance Meeting Set Stage for Trade Talks in Washington’

Vance’s visit comes as New Delhi rushes to avoid steep US tariffs and strike an early trade deal to boost ties with the Trump administration. Both sides are reportedly keen to take full advantage of the 90-day tariff pause announced by Trump on 9 April.

For Vance, this trip offers a chance to soften his global image as Trump’s enforcer, following meetings in France and Germany earlier this year, where he surprised allies by declaring that their biggest security threats came not from China or Russia, but from within.

Coercion is rarely an effective way to build global trade alliances. Imposing duties could deliver a $33 billion hit to India’s exports to the US, amounting to nearly a 1 percent drop in the GDP. Such a blow would further strain the economy. 

For context, since Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the US in February—during which he and President Trump pledged, via a joint declaration, to expand existing two-way trade fourfold to $500 billion by 2030—a series of high-level engagements have followed.

Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal visited the US in March, which was subsequently followed by US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s trip to India.

A Ministry of Commerce staffer told The Quint that Vance’s visit to India comes as Indian trade representatives prepare to travel to the US this week with the hopes of exploring an “early tranche” of a bilateral agreement covering a limited set of issues. The delegation will engage in three days of talks beginning Wednesday, 23 April.

The visit follows senior-level discussions held in India last month. Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch was in India from 25-29 March to meet Indian officials.

On 15 April, Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal stated that India will aim to conclude the negotiations as quickly as possible. Since March, India and the US have been engaged in talks for a bilateral trade agreement. Both governments are targeting completion of the first phase of the pact by the fall (September–October) of this year. 

A bilateral trade deal with the US is crucial for India. Such an agreement typically involves significantly reducing or eliminating customs duties on the maximum number of goods traded between the two countries, while also easing regulatory norms to promote trade in services and investment.

The Ministry of Commerce staffer further stated the US is seeking duty concessions in sectors such as certain industrial goods, automobiles (particularly EVs), wine, petrochemicals, dairy, and agricultural items like apples, tree nuts, and alfalfa hay while India is expected to seek duty reductions for labour-intensive sectors. 

Tariff Tensions

Amid these negotiations, the US has expressed concerns over its widening trade deficit with India. In an effort to address this and bolster domestic manufacturing, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on 2 April, including a 26 percent tariff on Indian imports. However, this was later suspended for 90 days, until 9 July.

“If after the 90-day pause, the US President restores the 26 percent tariff, that would be devastating for Indian businesses. We’ve been pushed into a corner,” the staffer added, referring to being “bullied” by the US on one side and China on the other after Beijing recently voiced strong objections to India’s approach. 

“China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China’s interests. If this happens, China will not accept it and will resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures,” the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said in a statement.

Indian officials speaking to The Quint said the ministry in New Delhi has been working around the clock to finalise the "first tranche" of the trade deal, with India already slashing tariffs on some US goods and broader cuts expected in the coming weeks.

The terms of reference (ToRs) for the proposed India-US bilateral trade agreement have already been finalised, according to Indian officials. These include 19 chapters covering areas such as tariffs, trade in goods, non-tariff barriers, and customs facilitation.

“The ToRs will be further developed and deliberated; will include issues like tariffs, non-tariff barriers, rules of origin, and regulatory matters,” an official familiar with the matter told The Quint.

Earlier, a senior GoI official, hours before Vance landed, had told The Quint that an interim trade agreement can only be during the 90-day pause provided the deal proves to be a “win-win” for New Delhi and Washington, adding that the general contours of the pact and a schedule for the talks will also be discussed to ensure finalisation within the 90-day window.

Vance’s presence in India is nothing if not a sign that the US wants to continue to work with India, especially towards the bilateral trade agreement. 

Other Issues and What Didn’t Work 

Meanwhile, an Indian diplomat confirmed to The Quint that while tensions continued to flare over student and H-1B visas, the Vance camp was “not keen to talk about anything but the bilateral trade agreement and our strategic comprehensive defence partnership”. 

Congress leader Jairam Ramesh had flagged US data that showed half of the 327 recent visa revocations for international students involved Indian nationals.

Meanwhile, a full readout is expected from the MEA following the end of Vance’s visit on Thursday, 24 April. 

While the official results of the meeting between Vance and Modi didn't mention much, an important possible outcome among them is the highly anticipated launch of the TRUST (Transforming Relationship Utilising Strategic Technology) partnership, an updated framework aimed at deepening technological cooperation between the two countries and a successor to the Joe Biden-era Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET).