Jaya-Modi Meet as Political Musical Chairs Start in Tamil Nadu
Modi meets Jayalalitha in Chennai. Will Amma go for an alliance with the BJP in 2016 polls? Asks Dhanya Rajendran
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For the last few weeks, Tamil Nadu has been intensely speculating about its Chief Minister’s health. She has been rarely seen outside her Poes Garden residence after being sworn in as Chief Minister for the second time this term; but a beaming Jayalalithaa in her trademark green saree handed over a bouquet to Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Chennai airport on Friday morning.
Airport and lunch diplomacy between the two leaders comes at a time when the state is witnessing a political churn, just a few months ahead of assembly elections.
Protests calling for alcohol prohibition are getting shriller, the drinking water situation in many parts is not in an admirable condition and being a state that has almost always alternated between parties, 2016 will not be an easy battle for Jayalalithaa.
Will She Go For It?
Though the appeal against her acquittal in the Supreme Court dangles like a sword of Damocles over her, the incisive politician Jayalalithaa is expected to use her time in jail and subsequent acquittal for an emotional connect with her voters.
AIADMK insiders say Amma is confident of sweeping 2016 polls, would she then go for an alliance, with the BJP? The Modi-Jaya meeting on Friday has political overtones, but perhaps too early to read into for any potential formation of an alliance. Even during Lok Sabha polls in 2014 when the BJP was at the zenith of its popularity, Jayalalithaa had closed the doors for an alliance.
The 2016 polls being her opportunity to come back as Chief Minister purely on the might of her party, Jayalalithaa will go for an alliance only if an amenable relationship with the centre would help her in other ways. Modi’s gesture of accepting Jayalalithaa’s lunch invitation will probably help the BJP in ensuring the AIADMK’s crucial support in the Rajya Sabha.
Meanwhile, the political situation with regards to other parties too is fast evolving. DMDK leader Vijayakanth who was the NDA’s star ally in 2014 has declared that he is not in any alliance anymore. Vijayakanth’s hint that he will form a new alliance with smaller parties has given hope to the Left parties that will find going with the DMDK beneficial.
DMK’s MK Stalin had also flirted with political diplomacy, meeting and posing for pictures with leaders like Vaiko and Anbumani Ramadoss. The DMK’s rainbow alliance dream seems to be getting tougher to achieve with PMK leader Ramadoss engaging in a war of words with Karunanidhi over prohibition.
Ramadoss has questioned that latter over why consecutive DMK regimes did not impose prohibition. Though there is friction, being pragmatic will probably bring the DMK, MDMK and PMK together during elections.
But what if that does happen? This is when it becomes important for both the BJP and AIADMK in having a strong ally in each other. At this stage, both the BJP and AIADMK are looking at each other as ‘Plan B’.
The Political Dynamics
AIADMK would ideally want to go it alone, having the money and muscle to push it through till the finish line. A united opposition is however a strong blockade, and in such a scenario, a strong endorsement from the PM could help the AIADMK further. There is also the issue of her DA case pending at the Supreme Court. The TN BJP too, with an eye on the future, wants to go it alone to see how many votes they can garner on their own and show growth on the state. But if they are left out of a rainbow alliance between the other parties, then they will have to look to the AIADMK.
It is this reasoning which is making both the BJP and AIADMK remain in each other’s good books.
Having said that and as most observers would agree, it is indeed too early to call alliance possibilities. But with the elections just 10 months away in Tamil Nadu, these events are set to shape the political narrative in the coming months.
(Dhanya Rajendran is the Managing Editor and Co-Founder of The News Minute)