How Climate Change Will Affect Politics in Assam and West Bengal

West Bengal & Assam are set for the largest migration in human history and it has nothing to do with politics.

People carry their belongings through floods caused by cyclone Aila in Shatkhira June 4, 2009. Thousands were displaced by a huge tidal wave caused by the storm. (Photo: Andrew Biraj/Reuters)

In the history of independent India, migration from Bangladesh has been a constant feature, in both waves and trickles. There was the huge influx of Hindus from the then East Pakistan during the Partition and again around 1964 when riots broke out in Bangladesh. The consistent flow of people from across the border has become an election issue, especially ahead of the assembly elections in Assam.

Earlier this month, BJP chief Amit Shah said his party would stop illegal migration into Assam, an issue he said other parties would be unable to restrict. Outbreaks of violence between Bangladeshi migrants and Bodo tribals have occurred regularly since the 1970s.

Historically migrants from Bangladesh have made their way into West Bengal seeking jobs and escaping religious persecution and poverty. Now, it seems that the region is set for the largest migration seen in human history, and this time, it has nothing to do with politics.

Indian soldiers patrol near the India-Bangladesh border. (Photo: REUTERS/Jayanta Dey)

Every day, climate change alters the landscape of West Bengal and Bangladesh. Sea level rise eats away at the coastline, engulfing islands along the way. After major storms, hundreds die and tens of thousands are left homeless.

Documentary series Years of Living Dangerously tracks expected sea level rise in Bangladesh.

Here’s a look at how global warming will force mass migration in the Bay of Bengal:

• In the next 30 years, rising seas are expected to swallow 17 percent of Bangladesh.
  
• Around 18 million people in Bangladesh’s coastal regions may be displaced by 2050.
  
• Already more than 1.5 million people are thought to have migrated to Dhaka’s slums due to sea level rise.
  
• Agriculture in coastal Bangladesh could decline by 40 percent as soil is contaminated with salt water, eliminating an important source of livelihood in the region.
  

Local residents sleep inside a flooded hut after heavy monsoon rains Kolkata, August 3, 2015. At least 75 people died and tens of thousands took refuge in state-run relief camps after heavy rains caused floods and landslides in eastern India, government officials and aid groups said. (Photos: REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri)

• India and Bangladesh are the two countries most vulnerable to flooding in the world.
  
• On the Indian side of the border, more than 4.2 million people could be pushed off their ancestral lands in the Sundarbans as a result of climate change.
  
• By 2100 all of the islands in the Sundarbans (both in Bangladesh and India) are expected to be fully submerged).
  
• In the entire Bay of Bengal region, 150 million people are threatened by climate change.
  

(With inputs from Aakash Joshi)