Climate Change Is Coming for Your Morning Coffee
Temperatures above 30°C are very harmful to arabica coffee plants, which make up the majority of global production.
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Global coffee production is under increasing threat as rising temperatures and erratic weather patterns disrupt traditional growing regions.
The world’s top five coffee-producing countries, which supply 75 percent of global coffee, are experiencing significantly more days of heat that harm coffee plants. These changes are affecting both the quality and quantity of coffee yields, with direct consequences for farmers and consumers worldwide.
According to The Guardian, an analysis by Climate Central found that Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia now face an average of 57 additional days of coffee-harming heat each year due to the climate crisis.
In Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, this figure rises to 70 extra days annually. Ethiopia, where coffee is a vital export and supports over 4 million households, has seen 34 additional days of extreme heat.
As highlighted by Deutsche Welle, temperatures above 30°C are extremely harmful to arabica coffee plants, which make up the majority of global production.
The robusta variety, while more heat-tolerant, is also negatively affected by prolonged high temperatures.
Researchers have linked these heat increases to lower yields and rising coffee prices, with the effects rippling from farms to consumers.
Expert commentary from coffee growers in India’s Western Ghats confirms that climate change is not a distant threat but a daily reality.
Farmers report longer periods of high daytime temperatures, warmer nights, and faster soil moisture loss, all of which stress coffee plants and disrupt traditional farming cycles.
Even when rainfall totals appear normal, changes in timing and intensity reduce soil water retention and nutrient uptake.
“Coffee is a crop that thrives on balance. Shade, moisture, and cool recovery periods. As that balance narrows, farms like ours and our partner farms have to adapt fast through better shade management, soil health, and water resilience,” said Akshay Dashrath, Co-Founder and Grower at the South India Coffee Company, as coverage revealed.
In Ethiopia, the birthplace of coffee, farmers are already seeing the impact of extreme heat.
The Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union has distributed energy-efficient cookstoves to discourage deforestation, as shaded areas are crucial for protecting coffee trees from direct sunlight.
However, analysis showed that smallholder farmers, who produce the majority of the world’s coffee, receive only a fraction of the climate finance needed to adapt to these changes.
“We are seeing two significant changes: increased temperatures and erratic rainfall. We see a reduction in soil moisture, even in shade grown coffee.
This creates stress for coffee plants, which in turn triggers blossoms with erratic rains. So it's quite common to see planters halting harvesting because part of their plants have blossomed,” explained Sohan Shetty, a manager of organic coffee farms, as details emerged.
Recent years have also seen a surge in global coffee prices, attributed at least in part to extreme weather in key producing regions. Reporting indicated that these climate impacts, combined with trade factors, are making coffee more expensive and less accessible for consumers worldwide.
“Nearly every major coffee-producing country is now experiencing more days of extreme heat that can harm coffee plants, reduce yields and affect quality,” said Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central.
All 25 countries responsible for 97 percent of global coffee production have experienced more coffee-harming heat in the past five years. Further analysis found that, on average, each country saw 47 additional days per year with temperatures harmful to coffee plants that would not have occurred without fossil fuel pollution.
The need for adaptation and climate finance is urgent, as the livelihoods of millions of coffee farmers and the future of the global coffee supply remain at risk.
Note: This article is produced using AI-assisted tools and is based on publicly available information. It has been reviewed by The Quint's editorial team before publishing.