Delhi Election Results: These Sections Saw the Biggest Switch from AAP to BJP
Which section of Delhi’s electorate switched from voting for AAP in 2020 to voting for the BJP in 2025 and why:
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The results of Delhi Assembly Elections 2025 are being touted as a referendum on Arvind Kejriwal’s governance and his brand of politics.
On Saturday, 8 February, the mandate of the people dealt a blow to Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the capital city, which is not only the place where the party was born but was also its launchpad into national politics.
Even as AAP suffered a loss of 40 seats as compared to the 2020 Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) added the same number of seats to its kitty this time. The final count was BJP winning 48 seats, AAP securing 22 and the Congress securing none—for the third time in a row.
In this story, we look at which section of Delhi’s electorate switched from voting for AAP in 2020 to voting for the BJP in 2025 and why.
Middle, Upper-Middle Classes Swing BJP’s Way
If we look at exit poll data published by leading polling agencies, including Cvoter and Axis My India, it becomes certain that a significant section of the middle and upper-middle class switched sides these elections.
As per Cvoter, the reduction in vote share is of consequence—
47.2 percent of those earning a monthly income of Rs 20,000 to Rs 50,000 had voted for AAP in the 2020 Assembly elections. This figure has reduced to 36.5 percent in 2025, marking a drop of 10.7 percentage points.
43.9 percent of those earning a monthly income of Rs 50,000 to Rs 1 lakh had voted for AAP in 2020, but the figure dropped to 32.7 percent in 2025, recording a drop of 11.2 percentage points.
53.5 percent of those earning more than Rs 1 lakh per month favoured AAP in 2020. This time, the number dropped to nearly half of its 2020 value, with only 25.8 percent voting in its favour.
Notably, AAP’s loss was BJP’s gain in most income groups, with big gains in the more affluent groups.
BJP’s vote share among those earning more than one lakh per month has nearly doubled from 32.2 percent in 2020 to 61.1 percent in 2025.
The party gained 15.3 percentage points among those earning between Rs 50,000 and Rs 1 lakh per month—from 39.6 percent in 2020 to 54.9 percent in 2025.
Again, 49.5 percent of those earning between Rs 20,000 and Rs 50,000 per month voted for BJP in 2025, a gain of 9.2 percentage points when compared to 2020.
Why Did the Working Class Jump Ship?
There could be three reasons to explain this. First, the overall disenchantment, rather frustration, of Delhi’s middle class with the capital city’s infrastructure as far as condition of roads, traffic, waste disposal and the deteriorating air quality is concerned.
Second, AAP’s over-reliance on freebies— promises of direct cash transfer to women belonging to poor households, free water (up to 20,000 litres per month), free electricity (up to 200 units per month), free healthcare for senior citizens, free bus travel for students, etc. did not appeal to the middle class.
This may also be the reason that nearly 10 percent of those in the low-income group (earning between Rs 3,000 – Rs 6,000 per month) shifted from AAP to BJP this election.
Third, days ahead of polling, on 1 February, the Union Budget presented by the Modi government announced tax sops, allowing a full rebate in income tax for those earning up to Rs 12 lakh annually or Rs 1 lakh per month.
The shift in upper-middle class and middle-class voters from AAP to BJP can also be confirmed by Axis My India exit poll, which shed on how Delhi voted based on the type of residence.
Central Govt Employees Favour BJP Over AAP; Why?
If we were to look at the vote share from the point of view of the electorate’s occupation, a clear shift can be seen among those engaged in government service, private sector and those who are self employed.
In fact, AAP’s loss and BJP’s gain was the highest among government service employees.
There are four lakh Union government employees in Delhi alone, according to a report in The Hindu. Besides, the Modi government also hiked the Dearness Allowance (DA) by 3 percent for central government employees in October last year.
As far as communities are concerned, the BJP also made gains among voters who were originally natives of Haryana (19 percentage points), Punjab (19 points), Rajasthan (17 points), Uttar Pradesh (13 points) and Bihar (13 points), if exit poll data published by Axis My India is to be believed.
If we look at Delhi’s Assembly seats bordering Haryana, nine of 12 have been secured by the BJP, with the exception of Okhla, Badarpur and Tughlaqabad. While former Haryana chief minister ML Khattar was BJP’s chief strategist for Delhi, the incumbent Nayab Singh Saini directly took on Kejriwal over the Yamuna water issue.
Meanwhile AAP, which fielded 12 candidates with roots in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, has lost nearly 20 percentage point votes from the community. Although, the party did manage to secure victories on five purvanchali-dominated seats, including Burari, Kirari and Babarpur where Sanjay Jha, Anil Jha and Gopal Rai won respectively.
BJP, on the other hand, secured victories in all four seats where it had fielded Purvanchali faces.
More Dalits, OBCs Back BJP
Both polling agencies have underlined a remarkable shift among Dalit voters. While Cvoter exit poll suggests that BJP has gained 3.5 percentage points among the SC community, Axis My India has asserted that the gain is higher—12 percentage points. The exit poll specified that the party has made more gains among Balmikis (12 points) when compared to Chamars (3 points) within the Scheduled Caste communities.
Earlier, The Quint reported that the BJP wrested six out of 16 seats, where Dalits form a significant part of the population. This includes the Rajinder Nagar constituency falling under New Delhi district, where there are more Balmikis than Chamars.
Similarly, those belonging to the Other Backward Classes (OBC) community had predominantly voted for AAP in 2020. This time though, nearly 14 percent points more OBC voters favoured the BJP over AAP, as per Cvoter exit poll. Data from Axis My India seconds this pattern, showing that BJP saw a gain of 20 percentage points among OBC voters.
In 2020, more upper-class Hindus voted for AAP (46.1%) than the BJP (42.9%). However in 2025, only 29.3 percent of upper-class Hindus voted for AAP whereas BJP secured twice as much vote share from this group.