Battle for Bihar 2015
- Asaduddin Owaisi of AIMIM is set to contest all 24 seats in the Seemanchal region of the state
- In the election wave of 2014, Seemanchal voted overwhelmingly for non-NDA parties. Will the situation change following AIMIM’s entry?
- The ‘Grand Alliance’ between RJD, JD(U) and Congress may prove more formidable
- Other than Muslims, Seemanchal has significant presence of Yadavs and OBCs
- The decision of six Left parties to contest all 243 seats in alliance may adversely impact the ‘Grand Alliance’
- More than smaller parties, the NDA and the ‘Grand Alliance’ should worry about rebel and dummy candidates
Seemanchal Express, which connects Delhi to Jogbani, a small town bordering Nepal in Bihar’s Araria district, is perhaps one of the most neglected express trains in the country. Washrooms invariably run dry mid-way through the journey. The train runs without a pantry and is notorious for never running on time.
Braving intimidating stares from authorities, people still queue up in large number at the originating station to catch a train as the journey is seen as some sort of redemption from even tougher everyday experience.
The train is very much like the region in Bihar it is named after, neglected and despised for its backwardness, and elections a time to look for some sort of redemption. Now enters a new player promising ‘hope’ to the people of this region during elections – Asaduddin Owaisi of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM).
With an eye on securing sizeable Muslim votes, Owaisi’s AIMIM is set to contest all 24 seats in the Seemanchal region of the state. Will he be able to walk away with a substantial chunk of Muslim votes, altering the political equation in the state?
Will Owaisi’s Presence Split Muslim Votes?
The region consists of four Lok Sabha constituencies. One of them is Kishanganj, one of the 15 Muslim-majority constituencies in the country. The other three – Araria, Purnea and Katihar – are among 53 constituencies of the country where the share of Muslim population ranges from 30 to 50%.
Altogether the share of Muslim voters in the region is in excess of 45%. And even in the election wave of 2014, the region voted overwhelmingly for non-National Democratic Alliance (NDA) parties. Is the situation going to change following the entry of Owaisi’s party as it is expected to split Muslim votes? Not very likely. There are reasons for that.
In the last two decades, sharp polarisation along religious lines has been a rarity in Bihar. The government is not seen to be hostile by the Muslims. In fact, governments headed by Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar have been seen to be sympathetic towards their cause. And the community, in return, has been loyal to Lalu Prasad and his allies all through.
The Yadav Effect
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and its allies got nearly 64% of Muslim votes. The situation is unlikely to change especially after the coming together of Lalu, Nitish and the Congress. Owaisi may, at best, end up with a few thousand votes. But it is unlikely to alter the political equation given the huge lead Lalu and his allies have enjoyed in this region.
Other than Muslims, Seemanchal region has significant presence of Yadavs and other backward classes. And they too have remained by and large loyal to Lalu and his allies.
Other than Owaisi, the presence of Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Party in the fray is also seen to be impacting the electoral outcome in Seemanchal and other regions of Bihar. Pappu Yadav who was with the RJD till recently is seen to be taking some Yadav voters away from Lalu’s party. But the sense I got after talking to some members of the community in the state is that that too is unlikely to happen.
“We are quite aware of who is doing what and at whose behest. It is the age of Whatsapp and Facebook. We get to know everything instantly. There is no question of leaving Lalu now when he needs our support the most,” one of them told me last week.
What Should NDA, ‘Grand Alliance’ Look Out For?
However, the decision of six Left parties to contest all 243 seats in alliance may adversely impact the fortunes of the Nitish-led ‘Grand Alliance’. According to reports, three major Left parties – the CPI, the CPI(M) and the CPI(ML) – together secured nearly 10% votes in as many as 31 assembly constituencies in the 2010 elections. And in another 26 seats, they got 5-10% votes.
If they repeat their performance in 2015, it may result in loss of some potential seats for the ‘Grand Alliance’. It must be remembered though that for many years the Left parties have been fighting elections in Bihar in alliance with bigger parties. For the first time, all Left parties have come together and have decide to test the water all by themselves. Their past performance, therefore, is unlikely to give any clue about their combined strength. They are, however, believed to have pockets of influence in districts like Bhojpur, Banka, Madhubani, Purnea and Begusarai.
Much more than smaller parties, the two alliances – the NDA and the ‘Grand Alliance’ – should worry more about rebel and dummy candidates. They are the ones who may tilt the balance one way or the other in case of a photo finish.
(Mayank Mishra writes regularly for the Business Standard)
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