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Sushma in Pak: Nothing Substantial Likely On ‘Comprehensive’ Talks

The newly-coined ‘comprehensive bilateral dialogue’ between India and Pakistan may not achieve real breakthrough.

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The Modi government has embarked upon a major review and reset of its roller-coaster Pakistan policy and this was evidenced in Islamabad where Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj announced (December 9) at a joint press conference with her Pakistani counterpart Sartaj Aziz that the stalled dialogue process was firmly back on track.

Swaraj noted: “We have decided to restart the comprehensive bilateral dialogue. The dialogue that was earlier known as composite dialogue and later on known as resumed dialogue will now be known as the comprehensive bilateral dialogue.”

The newly-coined ‘comprehensive bilateral dialogue’ between India and  Pakistan may not achieve real  breakthrough.
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj speaks as Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Adviser Sartaj Aziz looks on during a joint press conference in Islamabad on Wednesday. (Photo: PTI)

She also added that this decision was an outcome of the successful Bangkok meeting (December 6) between the two NSAs and Foreign Secretaries’ combine. The Indian focus on terrorism and the 26/11 Mumbai trial appears to have been accommodated and the joint statement asserted that both countries “condemned terrorism and resolved to cooperate to eliminate it.” Furthermore, the joint statement stated that Pakistan had provided assurances on an “early completion of the Mumbai trial.”

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Snapshot

Future Uncertain

  • Restarting ‘Comprehensive’ dialogue, a bilateral feat after the Ufa agenda failed to resume dialogue since July
  • Word ‘comprehensive’ to describe the dialogue has in its ambit contentious issues such as peace and security, CBMs, Siachen, Sir Creek, etc.
  • Post Musharraf-led coup, it is the Army which represents State in Pakistan and has assumed total control over three issues relevant to India: Kashmir, nuclear weapons and support to terror groups such as the LeT
  • Pakistan’s engagement with India hampered by structural realities, it is as well as by a hardened form of Islam, the Punjabi-Wahabi-Islamist orientation
  • Quite unlikely that the ‘comprehensive’ dialogue will result in a substantial breakthrough
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Surprising But Welcome

Swaraj’s visit to Pakistan is as surprising as it is welcome and the shift in the Modi government’s policy is instructive. In May 2014, then PM-designate Narendra Modi startled his interlocutors by inviting all SAARC leaders to his swearing-in and after some initial hesitation, PM Nawaz Sharif also joined at this new chapter of Indian politics.

The newly-coined ‘comprehensive bilateral dialogue’ between India and  Pakistan may not achieve real  breakthrough.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi shakes hands with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif during the former’s swearing-in ceremony in New Delhi, May 26, 2014. (Photo: Reuters)

Was this the harbinger of an abiding thaw and improvement in the bitter India-Pakistan relationship which was and is still to recover from the November 2008 Mumbai terror attack? Many hopes were aroused but these were short-lived for over the next few months the bi-lateral floundered when scheduled talks were called off by Delhi in August 2014 over the Hurriyat’s locus.

After a long freeze, the two political principals (Modi-Sharif) met in Ufa, Russia, in July this year and agreed to ‘resume’ the dialogue as per an agenda that gave Delhi considerable satisfaction. However, August appeared to be a jinxed month for the talks were kept in abeyance once again by Delhi which was determined not to expand the scope of the agenda that was agreed to in Ufa – namely terrorism but not Kashmir – the latter inclusion being determinedly sought by Pakistan.

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Modi’s Flexibility

Now in December 2015, it is evident that the Modi government has demonstrated considerable flexibility in reviewing its Pakistan policy and the new semantic has accommodated the Pakistani agenda and assuaged its sensitivities that were bruised at Ufa. The word ‘comprehensive’ to describe the dialogue is indeed expansive and has 10 points to it that include all the old chestnuts – peace and security, CBMs, Siachen, Sir Creek, Wullar et al.

Seasoned bi-lateral watchers may recall the February 1999 Lahore Accord which was signed by then Indian PM A B Vajpayee and as it happens – Nawaz Sharif. This was even more expansive and optimistic and also included a slew of nuclear and missile-related protocols.

The newly-coined ‘comprehensive bilateral dialogue’ between India and  Pakistan may not achieve real  breakthrough.
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (L) and his Indian counterpart Atal Behari Vajpayee greet each other after signing a memorandum of understanding named the “Lahore Declaration” on February 21, 1999. (Photo: Reuters)

However, the Lahore Accord was still-born and was swiftly buried in Kargil’s craggy heights in May 1999 when the Pakistan army led by its mercurial chief General Pervez Musharraf made an audacious gamble to change the territorial status quo.

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The newly-coined ‘comprehensive bilateral dialogue’ between India and  Pakistan may not achieve real  breakthrough.
A Border Security Force (BSF) soldier patrols near the fenced border with Pakistan in Suchetgarh, southwest of Jammu, January 12, 2013. (Photo: Reuters)

Pak Army’s Primacy

At that time, it was averred that the civilian leadership represented by Sharif was not kept in the loop by the Pak army. Over the years, post the Musharraf coup that ousted Sharif, the GHQ in Rawalpindi has assumed total control over three issues relevant to India: Kashmir, nuclear weapons and support to terror groups such as the LeT. This malignancy peaked with the November 2008 Mumbai attack.

The UPA with Manmohan Singh at the helm tried earnestly but in vain to square the circle with Pakistan. The structural realities in Pakistan that include the primacy that the Pak army has accorded itself by keeping alive a latent hostility with its neighbours and the Punjabi-Wahabi-Islamist orientation of the state do not allow for any meaningful resolution of the complex tangle that characterises Pakistan’s engagement with India.

The newly-coined ‘comprehensive bilateral dialogue’ between India and  Pakistan may not achieve real  breakthrough.
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj addressing the Fifth Ministerial Conference of the Heart of Asia Istanbul Process in Islamabad on Wednesday. (Photo: PTI)

Barring a metaphoric lobotomy of the collective GHQ in Rawalpindi and the religious right-wing that is represented by Muridke (LeT HQ), it is unlikely that the ‘comprehensive’ dialogue will result in a substantial breakthrough. But domestic political compulsions compel the Modi government to embark on this Sisyphean path.

Watch this space – it may hold no surprises – unless Swaraj offers one when she briefs Parliament about her surprise Pakistan sojourn.

(C Uday Bhaskar is Director, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi. Twitter@theUdayB)

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