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IS-Threat a Major Factor in US-led Iran Deal, Date Missed or Not

As Iran nuclear deal misses deadline, interlocutors should look at Iran as a major asset in the sphere of geopolitics

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Politics
4 min read
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Of Long and Arduous Deliberations...

The much anticipated June 30 rapprochement between Iran and the US-led P5 plus 1 – over the nuclear status of Tehran and the related lifting of sanctions –is in all likelihood going to be extended by a few days if not weeks. The long and arduous deliberations that have been going on in Vienna for months have reached an impasse over certain critical technical issues – such as the monitoring of Iran’s nuclear facilities and the manner in which the US led sanctions against Iran are to be lifted.

The foreign ministers and key negotiators are in a cloistered huddle and the Iranian team has reportedly gone back to Tehran for further consultations. It may be recalled that the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a widely reported speech last week, ruled out the condition of Iran freezing sensitive nuclear work or an extended period and has furthermore sought the immediate lifting of all sanctions once an agreement/deal is reached.

This is contrary to the tentative agreement reached in April, wherein a phased manner of lifting sanctions was envisaged that would be linked to Iran’s compliance with the nuclear related benchmarks regarding centrifuges, enrichment ceilings, spent fuel protocols, et al.

As Iran nuclear deal misses deadline, interlocutors should look at Iran as a major asset in the sphere of geopolitics
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius talks to the media as he arrives at Palais Coburg where closed-door nuclear talks with Iran are taking place, in Vienna. (Photo: AP)
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No Deal Better Than a ‘Bad Deal’?

The US and the EU (represented by France, UK and Germany in the talks) have taken a combined stand, wherein the consensus seems to be that no deal is better than a hastily arrived at bad deal. On the Iranian side considerable expectations have been aroused that the 2013 meeting between US President Barack Obama and his Iranian counterpart Hasan Rouhani would ultimately lead to a breakthrough in the bitterly adversarial bilateral relationship.

Hardliners in both countries are determined to scuttle the current talks and consequently, the two leaders have to navigate the path to rapprochement very carefully. The anti-Iran constituency in the US dwells on Tehran’s role in supporting terror groups ranged against Israel, as also the anxiety among the Saudi-led Arab block – US allies in the main – about the growing influence of the Shia spectrum in the politics of Islam.

The Iranian hardliners aver that the Rouhani team is making too many compromises and the supreme leader’s public stance is perceived to be at the behest of this group.

This resistance to the proposed rapprochement, wherein the diplomatic path would be pursued by the US and its allies as opposed to the military option has its entrenched constituency in the US legislature and this could prove to be a hurdle for Obama – even when the agreement is finally arrived at.

As Iran nuclear deal misses deadline, interlocutors should look at Iran as a major asset in the sphere of geopolitics
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, second from right, meets with U.S Secretary of State John Kerry, second from left, at a hotel in Vienna. (Photo: AP)
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A New Face of Geopolitics at Play

June 30 is likely to be extended to July – or even August – but the correlation with June 29 merits attention and has a certain relevance for India and the extended Southern Asian region.

On Monday (June 29) the dreaded IS (Islamic State) marked the first anniversary of its ‘caliphate’ announced that day in 2014. This group, which has now gone beyond the non-state description and is a de-facto state with up to 10 million reluctant citizens (captives?), poses an existential challenge to the contested and bloody status quo that prevails in West Asia.

In the last three years since it severed relations with the al-Qaida, the IS, with its ruthless Sunni profile, is the major regional security challenge and has displaced its 9/11 mentor.

Regionally, Iraq and Syria are unlikely to consolidate or return to their earlier geographical contours in the near future. The IS, its many anti-Shia clones and the more deeply ingrained radical jihadi ideologies that have taken root in different parts of the extended region (Afghanistan, Pakistan through to Bangladesh and beyond) need urgent political consensus. In this framework, an Iran that is brought into the global comity would be a major asset.

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As Iran nuclear deal misses deadline, interlocutors should look at Iran as a major asset in the sphere of geopolitics
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani gives a press conference, said a final nuclear deal is within reach. (Photo: AP)

Will the Interlocutors Manage to Attain the ‘Holy Grail’?

The alternative is bleak and will lead to a contested and opaque scenario where some states may take recourse to supporting terror groups to advance short-term geo-political objectives. Concurrently, the global nuclear and missile regimes and protocols need to be revisited so that a more equitable politico-military framework can be arrived at – and here again an Iran that is in the ‘tent’ would be a positive development.

An equitable and sustainable Iran – P 5 plus 1 nuclear deal that harmonises current global and regional policies towards WMD and state-support to terror is the metaphoric Holy Grail – elusive but enticing. Strive the interlocutors must.

(The writer is a leading expert on strategic affairs. He is currently Director, Society for Policy Studies.)

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